LSTAR’s News Release for May 2022

Inventory Levels Rise, but Prices Remain Elevated

In May 2022, 1,835 new residential listings were posted on the MLS® System of the London and St Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR), more than in any previous May in the Association’s history. The local housing supply increased from only 1.2 months of inventory in April to 1.7 months of inventory in May.

Sales, on the other hand, were more on par with those from the former decade, with only 844 homes exchanging hands last month in LSTAR’s jurisdiction.

“Even if in May the sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 46%, a figure that, typically, indicates a market that tends to favour home buyers, benchmark and average prices saw only modest month-over-month declines,” said Randy Pawlowski, 2022 LSTAR President. “Compared to last year’s figures, both of these values are substantially higher,” he added.

LSTAR’s composite MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark Price was down 4% over April, falling from $739,700 in April to $703,300 last month. However, this value is still 17.6% greater than the figure recorded in May 2021. Similarly, LSTAR’s overall average home price decreased from $771,682 in April to $762,397 in May. Compared to the same period last year, this figure is 19.5% higher.

“One of the reasons why we are witnessing this level of stability is the change in population from migration and immigration. Only in the fourth quarter of 2021, Ontario’s population saw a net increase of 34,074 people. Many of these new Ontarians are now looking to buy homes they can afford in regions with good schools and hospitals. And, as it happens, our area checks all these boxes.” Pawlowski explained.

“Aside from the growing population, the existing housing supply is another factor that puts upward pressure on the local home prices. While the months of inventory saw slight increases, they are still at lower-than-usual levels. Normally, a healthy inventory should sit at around 3.5 or 4 months,” Pawlowski said.

The following table shows how May’s average home sales prices in LSTAR’s main regions compare to the benchmark prices for the same areas.

Out of the 844 units sold last month, 635 were single-family homes, 105 – condo townhouses, and 65 – apartments.

In May, the average price for a single-family home in LSTAR’s jurisdiction stood at $818,977, that of a condo – at $605,333, and the overall average price for an apartment – at $465,364.

The following table shows the May benchmark prices for all housing types in LSTAR’s jurisdiction and how they stack up against the values from a year ago.

“Even if it’s higher than in many cities from other Canadian provinces, LSTAR’s composite HPI benchmark price places our area among the most affordable in Ontario,” Pawlowski observed. The following chart is based on data provided by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) for May 1^st, 2022.

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LSTAR’s News Release for April 2022

April Figures Suggest a Soft Landing of the Local Real Estate Market

In April 2022, 877 homes traded hands in the London-St. Thomas area and 1,069 new property listings were posted on the MLS® System of the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR). The local housing supply bounced up to 1.2 months of inventory in April from only 0.6 months in March.

“These figures suggest a soft landing of the local real estate market: the April home sales are on par with the ten-year average and last month’s sales-to-new listings ratio of 54.5% signals that we’re trending towards a more balanced market,” said Randy Pawlowski, 2022 LSTAR President.

Within the same time frame, LSTAR’s composite Home Price Index Benchmark Price saw a 4.5% month-over-month decline – from $774,200 in March to $739,700 in April. A similar difference was also seen in LSTAR’s overall average home price, which decreased from $823,954 in March to $771,682 in April.

“There is nothing dramatic about the decline in home prices. These single-digit decreases were actually expected after two consecutive interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada and the Ontario Government’s decision to expand and increase the non-resident speculation tax,” Pawlowski explained.

The following table shows how April’s average home sales prices in LSTAR’s five main regions compare to the benchmark prices for the same areas.

“In April, the average price for a single-family home in LSTAR’s jurisdiction sat at $840,415, that of a condo – at $618,049, and the overall average price for an apartment – at $476,283,” Pawlowski said. “Speaking of apartments, it’s interesting to see that their HPI benchmark price increased in April by 3.7% over the previous month, while the benchmark prices for all the other home types saw month-over-month single-digit reductions,” he noted.

The following table shows the April benchmark prices for all housing types in LSTAR’s jurisdiction and how they measure up to the values from a year ago.

LSTAR‘s News Release for March 2022

March Sees Record Number of Listings, but Inventory Remains Low

1,049 homes were sold in March 2022 in the London-St. Thomas area via LSTAR‘s MLS® System. During the same time frame, 1,544 listings came on the local market, which makes last month the March with the highest number of listings in the history of the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®.

“Despite the record number of listings, our inventory – the number of active listings at month end – saw just a slight increase from last month, creeping up from 0.5 months to only 0.6,” said Randy Pawlowski, 2022 LSTAR President. “The sales-to-new-listings ratio for the entire jurisdiction of LSTAR was 67.9%, much lower than a year ago, but still indicating a Sellers’ market,” he continued. “The latest interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada may have put a damper on what has been so far a truly fierce competition among local home buyers,” he explained.

In March, the overall average price for all home types in our area was $823,954, whereas LSTAR‘s composite MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark Price sat at $774,200. “These figures suggest that the pace of home price gains might have started to slow down in our area,” Pawlowski said. “It’s way too early to predict the impact of this new measure, but Ontario Government’s recent decision to increase the non-resident speculation tax to 20% and expand it throughout the whole province might also help tame home prices,” he added.

The following table shows how March’s average home sales prices in LSTAR‘s five main regions compare to the benchmark prices for the same areas.

Out of the 1,049 units sold last month, 756 were single-family homes, 140 – condo townhouses, and 107 – apartments.

“In March, the average price for a single-family home in LSTAR‘s jurisdiction sat at $894,306, that of a condo – at $692,187 and the overall average price for an apartment – at $501,961,” Pawlowski said. “Regarding condo townhouses, it’s interesting to see how well they are selling and how much their benchmark price has appreciated in the last year: last month was LSTAR‘s second-best March for condominium sales and the MLS® HPI benchmark price for a local apartment has grown by 49.7% over a year ago,” he noted.

The following table shows the March benchmark prices for all housing types in LSTAR‘s jurisdiction and how they compare with the values from a year ago.

“The latest figures achieved by LSTAR‘s HPI benchmark prices and average sale prices place our area somewhere in the middle of the Canadian home affordability scale,” Pawlowski observed. The following table is based on data provided by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) for March 1^st, 2022.

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LSTAR’s News Release for September 2021

LSTAR Home Sales on Track for a Record Year

In September 2021, the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR) experienced another solid month, with 864 residential transactions recorded via its MLS® system. “This value, which represents the second-highest number of homes sold in the month of September in LSTAR’s jurisdiction since 1978, puts us on track for a record year. In the first nine months of this year, 8,756 homes traded hands in our area, which is an unprecedented total for our September year-to-date figures,” said 2021 LSTAR President Jack Lane.

1,057 new listings came on the local market last month, on par with the values seen in the pre-pandemic years. However, at the end of the month, there were only 628 active listings left – the lowest amount of active listings ever seen by LSTAR in September. “These figures show clearly that houses in our area are in very short supply. The shortage is also demonstrated by the very low number of months of inventory – 0.6, which indicates that, at the current sales pace, it would take only a  bit over two weeks to liquidate the entire existing housing inventory of LSTAR,” explained Lane.

Both benchmark and average sales prices continued to rise last month. In September, the overall average home price for LSTAR was $690,861, while the LSTAR composite MLS® HPI benchmark price sat at $596,400.

The following table shows how September’s average sales prices compare to the benchmark prices. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) benchmark price reflects the value of a “typical home” from a specific area as perceived by local home buyers based on various housing attributes. The average sales price is calculated by adding the sale prices for all the homes sold and dividing that total by the number of transactions. Since monthly averages may be skewed by the type of houses sold in that timeframe, the HPI benchmark price is a more accurate way to gauge price trends.

The single-family home remains on top of the local buyers’ preferences, with 648 sales in September. “Yet, it is worth mentioning that, so far, both condo townhouses and apartments had their best year ever, with 1,087 and 812 units respectively exchanging hands year-to-date,” Lane noted.

The table below shows the September benchmark prices for all housing types in LSTAR’s jurisdiction and how they stack up against the values from a year ago.

The following chart is based on data taken from the CREA National Price Map for August 2021.